There have been 5 extinction level events in history of this “pale blue dot”. The last one happened 66 million years ago, when the dinosaurs, as a specie, became extinct; ancestors of human specie survived. The human specie may not survive the probable 6th extinction level event, which ironically the specie has and is creating itself. The sky will not fall but it will heat up; it will rain hellfire.
Climate Change and the resultant rise in temperature is becoming evident on a yearly basis. Chilas in Diamer district recorded a daytime temperature of 48.5 Celsius. Meteorological Department of Pakistan has issued a warning of Glaciated Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Scenarios that I can imagine; heavy rains combined with GLOF events, resulting in heavy floods and every year similar combination of climate change related extreme events will keep melting the glacier resulting in drying up of our rivers. Floods and then drought; a paradox which probably will unfold in front of us in Pakistan.
How did we manage to do it? I will make an attempt to explain. The pre-industrial (1850-1900) average global temperature, which is taken as a baseline was 13.7 degrees Centigrade and it is now 14.9 Degrees Centigrade; a rise of approximately 1.2 Degrees Centigrade. The Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere was 280 particles per million (ppm) and now atmospheric carbon dioxide is 420 ppm. The year 2024 was ranked by USA’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, as the hottest, since 1900, in its annual report. Beware, the rise in global temperature does not make any distinctions. It was the same for the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Climate Change is ruthlessly just.
The Green House Gases (GHG), including Carbon Dioxide, Carbon Monoxide, Nitrous Oxide, Methane and Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), that we have emitted, remain in the atmosphere, making the atmosphere denser. Imagine it like a quilt which is getting thicker by the day and this quilt of gases is trapping the Infrared heat, from reflecting back to the space. These GHGs have different levels of what is called Global Warming Potential (GWP). The GWP is different for each GHG. The news is Carbon Dioxide is the least harmful of them. Methane, which is commonly known as Sui Gas in our context, has 80 times more GWP then Carbon Dioxide and Nitrous Oxide GWP is 273 times more than that of Carbon Dioxide, but wait the GWP of CFCs ranges from 1000 times more harmful to 14,400. The molecules of these gases act like a spring. They absorb the infrared heat travelling back to the space and each molecule or the imagined spring spread it in all directions including back to earth.
The general understanding is that Pakistan is not an emitter and we are bearing the brunt of sins that others have committed. It’s true to an extent because we have a small industrial base, hence a small carbon footprint. However, this small footprint is not that small. The transport, agriculture and livestock sectors are huge emitters. Lo and behold, agriculture and livestock sector are the biggest culprits. Methane is emitted by livestock, through what is called enteric fermentation or more easily understood as their ‘digestive process’. Nitrous Oxide is emitted from any crop where fertilizer is used. We also augment this emission by practicing flood irrigation for crop watering, generating another harmful consequence; water waste.
Pakistan is active on the Climate Change battlefront globally but it remains slow in addressing the climate change challenges at home. Climate Change is a two-fronts battle. The federal and provincial governments are slowly waking up to the challenge. The speed is not enough though. I cannot see a coordinated ‘Climate Action’. The policy landscape at all levels of governments is not crowded. It needs to be crowded because, attention to every detail is required. I hope for a swarm of policies and consequent initiatives. Climate change mitigation, adaptation and climate action needed attention as of yesterday. All I can do is keep shouting at the top of my lungs, through writing about it. Consider this piece as a shout.